Screening Tools for Who Will Start Smoking and the Future of Clinical Prediction
Menée à partir de questionnaires auprès de 1 294 adolescents âgés de 12 à 13 ans, cette étude évalue la performance d'un modèle, basé sur 12 variables sociodémographiques (comportements tabagiques des proches, mode de vie, ...), pour prédire le risque d'initiation tabagique
Is the lack of a prognostic tool to assist clinicians in identifying youth at risk of transitioning from never to ever smoking a major barrier to counseling? Sylvestre et al1 address this in a longitudinal study of 12- to 13-year-olds in Montreal. They start with 58 candidate items on youth tobacco use initiation and monitor these early adolescents closely from 1999 to 2005, finding that 12 variables (age, 4 worry or stress items, 1 depression item, 2 self-esteem items, and 4 alcohol or tobacco items) are a best fit in predicting which youth go on to be among the about 16% who were nonsmokers at baseline and then puffed on a cigarette during the coming year.