Incidence of Pancreatic Cancer by Age and Sex in the US, 2000-2018

Pancreatic cancer is the fourth leading cause of cancer death with a 5-year survival rate of approximately 10%.1 Noncomparative data from 2013 showed increasing incidence of pancreatic cancer in older White women and men and in younger non-Hispanic White women.2 However, there are limited data on recent trends in pancreatic cancer incidence. The aim of this study was to perform an age- and sex-specific time trend analysis of pancreatic cancer incidence rates. Methods : Pancreatic cancer incidence rates per 100 000 population were obtained (age-adjusted to the 2000 US population and adjusted for reporting delay) from 2000-2018 from the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database. The SEER Program collects information from cancer registries covering 37% of US population. The Cedars-Sinai institutional review board exempted the study because the data were deidentified and publicly available. Time trends were quantified using Monte Carlo permutation analysis to fit the simplest joinpoint model using the incidence rate data.3 Annual percentage change and average annual percentage change (AAPC) were calculated. A 2-sided t test was performed to evaluate if annual percentage change was significant. Pairwise comparison between trends was performed to assess identicalness and equality. Age- and sex-specific analyses also were conducted. Younger adults were defined as those younger than aged 55 years and older adults were defined as those aged 55 years or older.5 A post hoc analysis also was performed for individuals aged 15 to 34 years and for those aged 35 to 54 years. Version 8.3.9 of the SEER*Stat program (National Cancer Institute) and version 4.9 of the Joinpoint Regression program (National Cancer Institute) were used. A 2-sided P < .05 was considered statistically significant for the overall group. Multiple testing correction was used and P < .025 was considered statistically significant for the analyses of the younger and older age groups and P < .0125 was considered statistically significant for the age groups of 15 to 34 years and 35 to 54 years. Results : From 2000 to 2018, a total of 283 817 cases of pancreatic cancer (50% women) were reported. Overall, the AAPCs of the total pancreatic cancer cases significantly increased in women (0.78% [95% CI, 0.68%-0.88%]; P < .001) and in men (0.90% [95% CI, 0.82%-0.99%]; P < .001) without a statistically significant between-group difference (0.12% [95% CI, 0%-0.25%]; P = .06). The stratified analysis of different age groups showed significant variations in trends. Among individuals aged 55 years or older (251 360 cases; 51% women), the AAPCs increased among women (0.62% [95% CI, 0.51%-0.74%]; P < .001) and men (0.92% [95% CI, 0.82%-1.01%]; P < .001) with the nonequal trends (P < .001) suggesting a greater increase among men. The incidence rates were much lower among individuals younger than aged 55 years (32 369 cases [11.4% of cases]; 43% women) and the trends were reversed for sex-based incidence rates. A significantly greater relative increase in incidence (AAPC) occurred among women younger than aged 55 years (1.93% [95% CI, 1.57%-2.28%]; P < .001) compared with men younger than aged 55 years (0.77% [95% CI, 0.50%-1.05%]; P < .001) with nonequal trends (P = .002; Table). To evaluate this trend reversal further, the group of individuals younger than aged 55 years was divided into 2 equal age subgroups: 35 to 54 years (30 831 cases; 10.9%) and 15 to 34 years (1538 cases; 0.54%). Women aged 35 to 54 years had a greater relative increase in incidence rates (13 139 cases; AAPC, 1.56% [95% CI, 1.24%-1.87%]; P < .001) than men (17 692 cases; AAPC, 0.65% [95% CI, 0.38%-0.91%]; P < .001) with nonequal trends (P = .004). Women aged 15 to 34 years had a greater relative increase (896 cases; AAPC, 7.68% [95% CI, 6.21%-9.18%]; P < .001) than men (642 cases; AAPC, 4.20% [95% CI, 2.54%-5.90%]; P < .001) with nonequal trends (P = .01; Table and Figure). Discussion : This study found that pancreatic cancer incidence increased among both sexes between 2000 and 2018. However, a greater relative increase was observed among women younger than aged 55 years, especially among those aged 15 to 34 years. Even though the reason for this relative increasing trend among younger women is unclear, it may imply a sex-based disproportional exposure to known or unknown risk factors. The observed trend can offer clues to researchers to gain better insight into pathogenesis of pancreatic cancer. A limitation of this study is the small number of patients with pancreatic cancer who were younger than aged 55 years. In addition, limited covariates and coding reliability have been noted in the SEER database.6 Future studies should validate these findings in other large population-based cohorts.

JAMA 2021

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