European cancer mortality predictions for the year 2025 with focus on breast cancer
Menée à partir de données européennes et de bases de l'Organisation Mondiale de la Santé et des Nations Unies, cette étude estime, pour l'Union Européenne et 6 pays en particulier (Allemagne, Espagne, France, Italie, Pologne et Royaume-Uni), le nombre de décès par cancer pour 2025 en fonction de la localisation, du sexe et de catégories d'âge
Background : We predicted the number of cancer deaths and rates for 2025 in the European Union (EU), its five most populous countries, and the UK, focusing on breast cancer.
Materials and methods : We derived population data and death certificates for all cancers and major sites for the EU, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain, and the UK since 1970, from the World Health Organization and United Nations databases. Estimates for 2025 were computed by linear regression on recent trends identified through Poisson joinpoint regression, considering the slope of the most recent trend segment. Deaths averted from 1989 to 2025 were calculated by applying the 1988 peak rate to subsequent population data.
Results : We estimated 1 280 000 cancer deaths in the EU in 2025, corresponding to age-standardised rates (ASRs) of 120.9/100 000 males (−3.5% versus 2020) and 79.1/100 000 females (−1.2%). In the UK, we predicted 173 000 cancer deaths and ASRs of 101.2/100 000 males (−10.1%) and 82.1/100 000 females (−6.3%). In the EU, favourable trends are predicted for major neoplasms, except pancreatic cancer, in males (+2.0%) and females (+3.0%), and lung (+3.8%) and bladder (+1.9%) cancers among females. Breast cancer mortality showed favourable trends in all countries. Substantial decreases were predicted for EU females aged 50-69 years (−9.8%) and 70-79 years (−12.4%). Between 1989 and 2025, we estimated about 6.8 million averted cancer deaths in the EU, including over 373 000 breast cancer deaths. Corresponding numbers for the UK were 1 500 000 and 197 000.
Conclusion : EU breast cancer rates have fallen by 30 % since 1990, due to advances in prevention, treatment, and early detection. Contrasting trends in lung cancer among males and females reflect differing tobacco smoking patterns. Female lung cancer mortality is still increasing in the EU, though less than in the previous decade. Persistent unfavourable pancreatic cancer trends can be related to the increasing prevalence of obesity and limited therapeutic advances, requiring continued attention.